Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.854007 14.704569 16.696831 18.997328 21.576597 24.375221 27.637663
2025-06-01 10.055403 12.549945 15.443419 19.032273 23.347591 28.351866 34.575857
2025-06-08 8.494139 11.218189 14.533269 18.836090 24.241538 30.772811 39.223437
2025-06-15 7.446424 10.344232 14.024341 18.995470 25.483029 33.604153 44.472615
2025-06-22 6.800148 9.865009 13.901398 19.540968 27.139721 36.935827 50.416289
2025-06-29 6.007379 9.085354 13.282264 19.336704 27.743145 38.882235 54.612072
2025-07-06 5.120913 8.069059 12.228198 18.417870 27.265038 39.301090 56.721633
2025-07-13 4.774328 7.791639 12.173566 18.868704 28.674338 42.310887 62.455863
2025-07-20 4.445087 7.501819 12.065195 19.213339 29.925011 45.131057 68.026463
2025-07-27 4.054549 7.075472 11.710644 19.151858 30.556162 47.073669 72.408181
2025-08-03 3.672108 6.622770 11.273457 18.920655 30.898901 48.586928 76.203365
2025-08-10 3.387718 6.302520 11.013994 18.936302 31.599016 50.635216 80.846503
2025-08-17 3.160769 6.064560 10.876855 19.148784 32.634874 53.265528 86.531396
2025-08-24 2.911744 5.764673 10.613605 19.135237 33.306822 55.366316 91.501561
2025-08-31 2.660789 5.435048 10.269982 18.954953 33.682457 57.000435 95.788735
2025-09-07 2.490142 5.235976 10.133435 19.109303 34.603746 59.518711 101.545365
2025-09-14 2.395517 5.171066 10.226143 19.659835 36.206476 63.183262 109.255360
2025-09-21 2.198691 4.888554 9.903776 19.453728 36.503818 64.729418 113.598045
2025-09-28 1.924903 4.424839 9.210255 18.530165 35.500608 64.073560 114.295489
2025-10-05 1.851315 4.363699 9.268725 18.983361 36.933149 67.535384 121.925598
2025-10-12 1.769675 4.277666 9.271773 19.329893 38.186351 70.735037 129.223616
2025-10-19 1.647861 4.093317 9.067740 19.268069 38.690739 72.662533 134.425545
2025-10-26 1.518121 3.878480 8.785932 19.035617 38.863486 74.011675 138.672678